من يشرح العلاقة بين اي ازمة تحدث في امريكا وبنوك العالم الرهن العقاري مثال

19-06-2020, 05:57 AM

المشاركه #1

kh26sa

عضو هوامير المميز

تاريخ التسجيل: Oct 2016

المشاركات: 8,646

من يشرح العلاقة بين اي ازمة تحدث في امريكا وبنوك العالم الرهن العقاري مثال

أزمة رهن عقاري جديدة في أميركا مع انتشار كورونا

حالة من الترقب والقلق تسود القطاع المصرفي وسوق الرهن العقاري في الولايات المتحدة،
بسبب تخلف ملايين الأسر الأميركية عن سداد القروض العقارية، وسط استمرار
إغلاق الاقتصاد.

وتسبب الإغلاق المرهق للأعمال التجارية، والقيود الاجتماعية المفروضة في معظم الولايات
لإبطاء تفشي الوباء، في ترك الملايين من أصحاب المنازل لوظائفهم،
ومن ثم تخلفوا عن دفع أقساط القروض العقارية.

ويحذر الاقتصاديون من أنه من دون تدخل فيدرالي سريع، يمكن أن يؤدي الانكماش الممتد إلى سلسلة من الأزمات الاقتصادية والمالية
تفوق في تأثيرها الأزمة المالية في 2007 - 2008 فمن دون تدفق مستمر لمدفوعات الرهن العقاري،
لن تتمكن البنوك والمؤسسات الممولة من دفع الفوائد للمستثمرين الذين اشتروا سندات مدعومة بأرباح الرهون العقارية، وفقا لما نقلته صحيفة "الشرق الأوسط".

وتتميز سوق الرهن العقاري في الولايات المتحدة بالتعقيد والخصوصية بعض الشيء. ولتبسيط الأمر، يتم تمويل القروض العقارية عبر قطاعين، أحدهما مصرفي، يخضع لقواعد الرقابة الفيدرالية، وآخر غير مصرفي، غير ملزم بتطبيق قيود الاحتياطي الفيدرالي، المتعلقة بحجم رأس المال. ويقوم كلا القطاعين بطرح سندات، مدعومة بأرباح القروض العقارية التي يبيعونها، ولكن بنسبة فوائد أقل من الأرباح وأعلى من فائدة البنك.

ويمكن هذا النظام البنوك والمؤسسات التمويلية بتحصيل قيمة القروض خلال فترة أقل، عبر بيع السندات. ويساعد ذلك في تسريع دورة رأس المال هذه المؤسسات، كما أنه يساعد المواطنين على الحصول على قروض عقارية بأسعار فائدة زهيدة. من ناحية أخرى، فهو يوفر سندات آمنة للمستثمرين الذين يبحثون عن استثمار آمن، ويرغبون في الحصول على فوائد منتظمة.

https://www.alarabiya.net/ar/aswaq/r...A7%D8%B1%D9%8A

الموضوع الأصلي : اضغط هنا || المصدر :
ساحات الهوامير المفتوحة

19-06-2020, 11:43 PM

المشاركه #2

kh26sa

عضو هوامير المميز

تاريخ التسجيل: Oct 2016

المشاركات: 8,646

ما جعلني اسئل عن العلاقة بين بنوك العالم ومصارف امريكا
هذا الفيديو الذي يتوقع ازمة رهن عقاري اشد من عام 2008
بسبب تسريح الموظفين

يقول
I want to say that to put this into
perspective in 2008 when the mortgage
crisis hit and it took down the global
banking

البطاله
Great Recession
so unemployment already
doubled what it was at the worst point
and I don't think we've gotten there yet
now as it approaches the 25 percent
we're going to surpass the record set in
the Great Depression of 1933 all right
it's pretty bad so we're on our way to
meeting or exceeding that record
_____________________________________________________
الملف المصاحب للترجمة كامل
with 35 million people unemployed

with businesses shut down

with the market stumbling a lot of people are expecting

another real-estate market crash but

more importantly they're trying to

figure out when when is the real estate market gonna crash

now I made a couple videos talking about if it's going to

crash what we can expect but today

I am going to address when so
stay tuned

[Music]

all right welcome back if you're new to the channel

my name is mark moss

I like to talk about making money

money and having overall success

those are my topics and

if you like to learn about any one of those
I'm sure you do
click on the like button right now

it helps the algorithm helps more people

find these videos

which I really appreciate and also click that subscribe

notification it's bail notification so

you're notified every time

I put new videos on now today

we are talking about real estate
recently I've done about 3 different videos

on real estate hitting different parts

now a little bit about me

I've spent over 20 years in real estate

I've purchased fixed and flipped

probably over a hundred 150 properties

I've owned over 200 different rental properties

I've developed over 20 million dollars in real estate

so I kind of

know a couple of things I study it a lot

I pay a lot of attention to it now like

I said I've done previous real estate videos

just recently I did three

I made a case as to
why I believe real estate was the best investment

for the last 40 or 50 years

but it won't be so

I projected what's gonna happen one's real estate

over the next twenty to thirty years

I made another video showing which part of the markets

I expected to see softening first

but like most people

all the comments were coming one

to note win win wins

I said okay now you told us what to expect long term

now you

told us where to expect this off me but

whin well timing is impossible

alright that's the problem it's easy to see what's gonna happen

but knowing when it's gonna happen is the very very hard part

if it was easy to pick pick win

we'd all be rich right but it's not so

I'm just gonna tell you right now timing

is impossible to do but I'm gonna try

I'm gonna try to take an educated guess

looking at the information that we have

and I think I found a couple major facts

here they're gonna help us out so let's

see what you think now I'm gonna give

you three factors the first one that

when you take into consideration that's

gonna help us with the timing is

understanding debt loads okay

we have massive debt loads do US

households are cracking under the weight

of debt that they're carrying okay

household debt has risen for 23 straight

quarters so basically for two years

household debt has just gone up up up up

right as of April it stands at over 14

trillion dollars fourteen point three

trillion dollars as a matter of fact and

so the

according to the Federal Reserve Bank of

New York even auto debt is blowing up

auto debts been steadily rising now for

36 months that's three years and auto

debt totals over 1.3 five trillion

dollars that's a staggering amount one

point three five trillion dollars for

auto debt we also have student loan a

massive bubble and student loan debt

that's at one point for two trillion

mass at one point were to join now so

then we have credit card debt and credit

card debts totalling more than one

trillion almost 1.1 trillion dollars now

I want to say that to put this into

perspective in 2008 when the mortgage

crisis hit and it took down the global

banking it was a 700 billion so 700

billion in 2008 collapsed the entire

banking system one bubble of 700 billion

today

that's three over a trillion auto debt

1.35 student loan debt one point for two

credit cards almost 1.1 trillion now in

addition that's not just about debt it's

starting to go bad is starting to go

really really bad as a matter of fact

we're seeing delinquencies the amount of

missed payments going up up up in April

we are almost 10 percent delinquencies

which is really high as a matter of fact

it's the highest level that we've seen

in over two years and that's not good

the most frightening though out of all

these bubbles is the mortgage debt

bubble if you think those one trillion

dollar bubble sound bad the mortgage

debt bubble is 10 trillion dollars it's

up its up a hundred and fifty billion in

just the last year alone so it's growing

super super fast

it's climb almost thirty billion dollars

in just the first quarter of this year

the first quarter of 2020 alright so

that's the first one we have all this

massive debt it's already starting to go

delinquent it's many many many many

times higher than the bubble that

happened in 2008 all right factor number

two no income of course right as job

losses increased we see you know job

losses layoffs we see furloughs and

furloughs turn into permanent layoffs

etc well the households are gonna have a

harder and harder time paying those

bills how are you gonna pay for all

trillions of dollars of debt if you're

not earning income right especially the

biggest monthly bill which of course was

the biggest monthly bill its mortgage

it's rent right now since the pandemic

started like I said an angel about

thirty five million Americans have filed

for unemployment now it's taken the

unemployment rate from a historically

low three point five percent in February

to almost fifteen percent today it's

amazing game from three point five to 15

percent per the Bureau of Labor

Statistics the BLS they even admit

themselves that this number is not real

they say it's way too low now he has

survey the BLS conducts over a week they

did this one April twelfth to April 18th

so basically they're just looking at

week so it's kind of like just like a

snapshot but they said that seventy

percent of those surveyed households

responded which is less typically to

have about eighty three percent so the

BLS commented that its own survey

results they're a little bit skeptical

on the results they didn't really think

they were super accurate and they said

that the estimated nine million people

they kind of pulled a small group and

then they kind of extrapolate the

numbers they say the estimated nine

million people answered that they were

employed but quote absent over the week

so it's unusual for that to happen so in

the survey a commentary the BLS said

that the unusual number is about seven

point five million more than typical so

this indicates that those people should

probably have been recorded as

unemployed and if they had been then the

US unemployment rate would be not

fifteen percent

but almost twenty percent so that's

where they think it is so it's somewhere

between fifteen to twenty percent is the

real unemployment rate now there's also

something called the u6 the u6 measure

of unemployment and this includes

workers who also say that they're

discouraged they're not looking for work

its workers who are working part-time

who want to be full-time employed but

they're not so unemployment doesn't even

count those people but just because you

have a part-time job

you're not count as an employed right so

the u6 gives us a little bit more of an

accurate number and if we look at the u6

it stands at almost twenty three percent

alright you're starting to get the

picture here twenty three percent now

that number is also in question a lot

more jobs

been lost just in the last few weeks

then we've seen created I mean even in

the last decade like we've lost more

jobs in the last two months than we've

seen created in an entire decade now

unemployment at 20% is double what it

was during the the bottom of the

2007-2009

Great Recession so unemployment already

doubled what it was at the worst point

and I don't think we've gotten there yet

now as it approaches the 25 percent

we're going to surpass the record set in

the Great Depression of 1933 all right

it's pretty bad so we're on our way to

meeting or exceeding that record now we

might get there I think we can see there

we could get there before people start

getting rehired I've made the case

before that the experts are saying that

the 42 percent of those job layoffs may

never come back against this bleak

employment backdrop housing prices have

held up nationally because there's

little inventory for sale all right so

this is like supply and demand this is

expected to change I mean basically

housing inventory which is the the

number of homes that are available for

sale it's been low and you have supply

and demand so if there's not a lot of

houses to buy but there's demand for

those houses it's gonna keep those

prices up but as of February inventory

was down nearly 10 percent on a

year-over-year basis so that just shows

the this supply has been way down it's

down 10 percent from where it was a year

ago now during the last full week in

March the number for sale homes taken

off of the market see their homes that

were already for sale but pulled down

and jumped nearly a hundred and fifty

percent that's a massive game so these

houses were for sale and they pulled

them off the market but the jump in the

home the jump in the home was being

pulled off the market to me is the smoke

all right what do I mean by that well

you hear the saying that where there's

smoke there's fire like it's the canary

in the coal mine whatever you want to

see so for me seeing those homes pulled

off the market that's the smoke there's

smoke there's fire and this fire the big

problems is coming in the third and

final piece alright so the third and the

final factor that I want to look at that

really kind of helped me kind of hone in

on when this is gonna happen but like I

said trying to find the timing it's

difficult but I'm gonna get

satting and the third factor is what I

call forbearance all right now the

forbearance is basically like the

forgiveness and so what I mean is that

like I said the home is a single biggest

expense for most Americans it counts for

for most people about 33% of their

entire household budget now per the BLS

most recent Consumer Expenditure survey

they found the same thing they said

about three quarters of all mortgages

the united states are federally

guaranteed so the government is

guaranteeing those loans three-quarters

75% of those loans the rest the 25% the

rest of those loans are private right

these are non government loans now we've

had the cares Act which is the the

stimulus bill the cares Act is basically

granting relief or forbearance as that

cost to homeowners whose mortgages are

federally guaranteed so if you're a

homeowner and you're one of the 75% of

those loans that are federally

guaranteed you have the option to take

forbearance meaning you don't have to

make your payment you can decide to

instead of making that payment put it

onto the back end now these are all the

federally guaranteed loans 75% of them

so that's Fannie Mae Freddie Mac FHA the

VA Ginnie Mae etc and under the cares

Act borrowers with these federally

backed loans are granted a hundred and

eighty days of forbearance I had six

months during that time the payments

aren't forgiven the payments are

postponed right or at least they can be

reduced but the interest is still going

to accumulate now most times you don't

have to pay anything at all you don't

have to give any kind of reason you

don't have to give any kind of a

documentation you don't have to prove

any type of hardship nothing you can get

a pass on making your payment's now

after the 180 days six months then

borrowers can apply for an extension of

another 180 days and in most cases it

can be automatically granted so that

means six months of no payments on your

mortgage and then another six months so

up to a year that you can go without

making a payment if you're one of those

75% of government loans now the 25% of

non government loans they're having

problems because those people the the

borrower's they expect forbearance as

well if you're in one of those loans

then the borrower asked to contact the

mortgage servicer and request a

repayment schedule according to the

Mortgage Bankers Association as of April

30th

and a half percent of all active

mortgages about eight hundred and forty

1 billion dollars in unpaid principal

has already asked for and already gotten

a forbearance so about seven and a half

percent of all mortgages are in

forbearance right now think about that

seven and a half percent are in

forbearance me to not make any payments

if forbearance wasn't an option that

would be seven and a half percent of

mortgages not making their payments that

would mean seven and a half percent

mortgages defaulting you understand what

we're talking about here so they're

postponing it by six months and

potentially a year in addition to the

7.5 percent of active mortgages that are

already in forbearance mortgage services

are saying that there's more than half a

million new mortgages a week being added

to that list so already seven and a half

percent but there's half a million new

people being added to that list of

forbearance every single week now as

they expect that number to continue to

increase every single week for at least

the next probably two to three months

and as big as those numbers already seem

to be they could turn out to be just a

drop in the bucket now the st. Louis

Federal Reserve Bank projects that 47

million Americans eventually will become

unemployed right so we're at 35 million

right now they're saying up to 47

million so if that if what they're

saying is true if we see that number

then the amount of forbearance agreement

that we see right now is going to be a

drop in the bucket and then what about

the renters well renters around America

are also saying well we want forbearance

on our rent right and so what a lot of

these local governments are putting

these non eviction orders where if

tenants renters don't pay the rent the

owners of the homes may not be able to

get them out typically if they have one

of these government loans they can get

forbearance on so if the home one of the

mortgage ur is able to get forbearance

than the rent or also wants to get the

forbearance which I guess it makes sense

it's kind of justified for them not

having to pay their rent like I said if

the landlord's receiving forbearance and

this might be okay for borrowers but

what about the investor so what about

the borrowers not paying the and their

tenants not paying but what about the

investor that put the money up they need

the money right though

going to reads and those are going to

pension funds and what about that money

and so that's creating a really really

big problem so after the Mortgage

Bankers Association went and lobbied the

government basically the government

decided they would pay it or basically I

guess you and I we're the taxpayers

we're gonna go ahead and pay it we're

gonna backstop those mortgages this time

around it's gonna be different in my

opinion this time around the damage is

gonna be worse it's gonna last longer

and it's gonna hit the housing market

the mortgage-backed securities

investments market and the economy in a

completely different way in a much

bigger way I think way bigger way more

powerful than the 2008 financial crisis

so how you ask well it goes back to jobs

jobs and jobs you can delay people's

payments but if there's no jobs for them

to start making their payments again how

is there ever gonna be a recovery so

basically we have these three factors

all playing out into what I call the

great unraveling okay so the problem

starts to surface when the forbearance

runs out so this is where we get to the

time where I'm starting to try to put a

prediction on the time when will we see

the markets crash well I believe it the

problem starts to surface when the

forbearance runs out so it's six months

and then potentially extended another

six months so I think after the

forbearance runs out in six months we

could see a massive amount of home start

to flood the market remember we talked

about the the homes being pulled off the

market so all these people are trying to

sell their homes but when they were told

they didn't have to sell for six months

they pulled them off the market well as

soon as that forbearance runs out all

those homes go back on the market it

floods the market especially in the

hardest hit areas and then supply and

demand when we have too much supply not

if the man it's going to depress the

prices all right and it's gonna push the

prices down so I think that we're gonna

see this first batch in about six months

from now and then we'll see another

batch in six months after that depend on

how many get rolled over now the central

bank's decision to buy a nearly

unlimited supply of government-backed

mortgages you know it's helped calm the

markets so far but the market for loans

in which the government doesn't provide

risk the non government loans

well those investors there abandon the

market altogether and so

those types of loans already starting to

dry up they're starting to disappear

when home values and their underlying

mortgage-backed securities both

government guaranteed and private when

they start to falter and fall the same

negative feedback loop that tore up home

homeowners and mortgage-backed security

investors banks finance companies

investment houses back in the 2008

financial crash I believe is gonna

revisit the economy and further slow

down the country's recovery I think

we're gonna see you know given the job

losses that we've seen again 42% of

which may never come back because of

this new normal that you know we might

never see many of these businesses that

ever be able to operate under these new

conditions and that's only gonna

exaggerate and make things worse but

worry I'm not trying to paint the doom

and gloom picture here just like in 2008

there's always gonna be ways to make

money

I learned a strategy back then that

there's no such thing as good and bad

timing only good and bad strategies so

it's gonna be lots of ways to make money

as this starts to unfold but the first

thing that we need to do as investors is

we have to focus on capital

capital preservation once we can protect

our capital then we can focus on

printing to working capital growth so

that's kind of the strategy does that

make sense

so that's it that's my best guess as to

timing everybody wanted to know when is

it going to happen

I think the first wave in six months

second wave in 12 months based off of

those forbearance agreements assuming

that the economy does not have some

radical v-shaped merge magical recovery

which i think is doubtful at this point

let me know what you think down in the

comments below do you agree with the six

months and 12 months or do you think

we're gonna have a recovery and it's not

gonna crash I'd love to hear your

perspective give me a thumbs up on it if

you like it if you don't like it give me

a thumbs down either way let me know in

the comments that's all I got for you to

your success I'm out

[Music]

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01:46 AM

من يشرح العلاقة بين اي ازمة تحدث في امريكا وبنوك العالم الرهن العقاري مثال

ساحات الهوامير المفتوحة

وبنوك

الرهن

العقاري

امريكا

اقرا ايضا

شباب عندي تسريب ماء

كفالة بنك التسليف والتقاعد